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Energy analysts have voiced deep skepticism regarding optimistic claims that US energy majors will rapidly invest tens of billions of dollars to fix the country's crumbling oil infrastructure.

The Need for Iron-Clad Assurances

Lacking an absolute assurance of complete repayment from the Washington, experts believe international firms to proceed with great care.

“It would be premature to comment on any potential investments,” a spokesperson said this weekend.

The ambitious schedule of under a year and a half has been boldly proposed. Yet, realistic assessments indicate a longer timeline.

A Likely Timeline

“It is likely going to take multiple years for any kind of recovery in production,” commented an energy analyst.

The analysis indicates energy firms would likely spend:

• The first year: Securing new regulatory frameworks.
• Year two: Investing in overhaul of facilities.
• The third year: Reaching a position to boost yield.

This would lead to an increase of around 500,000 barrels per day possibly by 2029.

Desire Versus Readiness for Risk

There is a key distinction between firms' attention and their readiness to commit heavily.

“I believe their curiosity is an eight, on a scale of one to 10. However, their willingness is a four or five, because there is significant uncertainty yet.”

Seasoned operators in the sector echo this sentiment. The thinking is that firms will publicly talk up the opportunity while actually moving with deliberate slowness.

The Vast Investment Required

The financial outlay would be vast. Research analysis suggest that adding between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require over $10 billion in funding over several years.

But, returning output to historical levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Pending Question of Federal Guarantees

The suggestion of firms being paid back by the US taxpayer has been repeatedly floated. Nevertheless, specific plans on such a mechanism have not yet been provided.

This lack of certainty is the key impediment behind the industry's reluctance. Companies seek protection against nationalization and the risk that a different president could refuse any deal.

“You need to be protected from sovereign risk, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela previously.”

In summary, while rhetorical confidence runs strong, the operational risks suggest a journey of slow deliberation for potential large-scale venture in the country's oil sector.